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The ocean plays a major role in controlling atmospheric carbon at decadal to millennial timescales, with benthic carbon representing the only geologic‐scale storage of oceanic carbon. Despite its importance, detailed benthic ocean observations are limited and representation of the benthic carbon cycle in ocean and Earth system models (ESMs) is mostly empirical with little prognostic capacity, which hinders our ability to properly understand the long‐term evolution of the carbon cycle and climate change‐related feedbacks. The Benthic Ecosystem and Carbon Synthesis (BECS) working group, with the support of the US Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry Program (OCB), identified key challenges limiting our understanding of benthic systems, opportunities to act on these challenges, and pathways to increase the representation of these systems in global modeling and observational efforts. We propose a set of priorities to advance mechanistic understanding and better quantify the importance of the benthos: (a) implementing a model intercomparison exercise with existing benthic models to support future model development, (b) data synthesis to inform both model parameterizations and future observations, (c) increased deployment of platforms and technologies in support of in situ benthic monitoring (e.g., from benchtop to field mesocosm), and (d) global coordination of a benthic observing program (“GEOSed”) to fill large regional data gaps and evaluate the mechanistic understanding of benthic processes acquired throughout the previous steps. Addressing these priorities will help inform solutions to both global and regional resource management and climate adaptation strategies. 

Abstract. Global projections for ocean conditions in 2100 predict that the North Pacific will experience some of the largest changes. Coastal processes that drive variability in the region can alter these projected changes but are poorly resolved by global coarse-resolution models. We quantify the degree to which local processes modify biogeochemical changes in the eastern boundary California Current System (CCS) using multi-model regionally downscaled climate projections of multiple climate-associated stressors (temperature, O2, pH, saturation state (Ω), and CO2). The downscaled projections predict changes consistent with the directional change from the global projections for the same emissions scenario. However, the magnitude and spatial variability of projected changes are modified in the downscaled projections for carbon variables. Future changes in pCO2 and surface Ω are amplified, while changes in pH and upper 200 m Ω are dampened relative to the projected change in global models. Surface carbon variable changes are highly correlated to changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), pCO2 changes over the upper 200 m are correlated to total alkalinity (TA), and changes at the bottom are correlated to DIC and nutrient changes. The correlations in these latter two regions suggest that future changes in carbon variables are influenced by nutrient cycling, changes in benthic–pelagic coupling, and TA resolved by the downscaled projections. Within the CCS, differences in global and downscaled climate stressors are spatially variable, and the northern CCS experiences the most intense modification. These projected changes are consistent with the continued reduction in source water oxygen; increase in source water nutrients; and, combined with solubility-driven changes, altered future upwelled source waters in the CCS. The results presented here suggest that projections that resolve coastal processes are necessary for adequate representation of the magnitude of projected change in carbon stressors in the CCS.